公司税收规避、税率持续性与股票收益波动率

Tax Avoidance, Tax Rate Stickness and Stock Retrun Risk

从税率平稳性角度看,避税活动是否会增加税率波动性进而给企业带来高风险是一个值得探讨的重要问题。从动态视角研究发现,避税是一种策略性行为,低实际税率的企业相比高实际税率的企业,其税率在长时期内能够保持平稳。此外,避税活动并不一定会带来未来税率和股票收益的波动性。这说明公司通常采用持续、稳定的税收策略,不会带来公司风险的激增。进一步研究发现:节税率的波动性与公司未来股票收益波动存在着显著正相关,即当避税引起税率波动较大时,会带来公司股票收益风险的增加。

From the perspective of tax rate stability, whether tax avoidance activities will increase tax rate volatility and bring higher risks to enterprises is an important issue worth discussing. From a dynamic perspective, it is found that tax avoidance is a strategic behavior. Compared with enterprises with high effective tax rate, enterprises with low effective tax rate can maintain a stable tax rate for a long time. In addition, tax avoidance does not necessarily lead to fluctuations in future tax rates and stock returns. This shows that companies usually adopt a sustained and stable tax strategy, which will not lead to a sharp increase in corporate risk. Further research finds that there is a significant positive correlation between tax rate volatility and future stock return volatility, that is, when tax avoidance leads to greater tax rate volatility, it will increase the risk of stock return.