对美国国家安全战略的思考

Reflections on the US National Security Strategy

当前,在美国朝野形成的一个重要共识是:美国面临影响国家安全的许多不稳定因素;威胁的复杂性、多元性、不确定性和突发性,是美国未来安全环境的主要特点。全球化趋势的发展、世界两极体制格局结束所带来的国际关系结构的变化以及高新技术的迅猛发展这三大因素,将是影响美国当前主流意见对安全环境怀着复杂心态的主要动因。美国国家安全战略的目标和任务,是如何有效地应对来自7个方面的主要挑战。它们是:在全球范围赢得打击恐怖主义的漫长战争、制止大规模杀伤性武器的扩散威胁、加强全方位的国土防御、平息不稳定地区冲突、处理好大国关系、调整同盟体系,以及实现美国军事力量转型。单边行动和多边合作并用,将是美国战略的主要特色;而它的战略进取和挫折可能继续相互交织,从而成为未来影响世界和地区和平和稳定的一个主要的不确定因素。

Today,a consensus among the elites in Washington has firmly been established,that is,the United States is still facing a number of unstable factors that will affect the US security in the future;complexity,plurality,uncertainty and surprise of the threats are the hallmarks of the U.S.future security environment.In the next 20 years from now on,the U.S.will be'engaged in what will be a long war',and entering'a new unknown era'.Among all these influencing factors that can be envisaged,three major ones can be defined that underlie the U.S.ambivalent feelings towards the future world.These three major factors are: development of globalization,change of the architecture in the international relations as a result of the collapse of the bipolar structure,and rapid progress of science and highte—chnology. Against this backdrop,the goal and tasks of the U.S.national security strategy are designed to effectively deal with 7 major challenges it is faced with.These challenges include: countering international terrorism,combating threats of weapons of mass destruction, protecting homeland security,defusing conflicts in various unstable regions,engaging other major powers,adjusting alliances and partnerships,and realizing military transformation. One should not underestimate the offensive and adventurous nature of the U.S.strategy,and the progress Washington has made in its implementation;nor the vulnerabilities and difficulties in the process of the U.S.strategic readjustment.The orientation of the U.S. security strategy into the 21^(st)century seems quite clear now although it will continue to be in a state of dynamic readjustment.During this process,one would see the US use tactics of unilateralism and multilateralism alternately more often.The result could be achievements in one place,but setbacks in the other as before.All these would become one of the major uncertainties that affect world and regional peace and stability in the future.