美国政治再结盟及其实现条件

The U.S.Political Realignment and the Preconditions

2008年大选在美国历史上是空前的,既反映了美国社会所发生的一些变化,也有可能启动美国政治再结盟的过程。美国的人口构成、社会思潮、代际钟摆效应,是美国出现政治再结盟现象的主要条件;而伊拉克战争、福利体系和移民问题,则构成了诱发再次出现政治再结盟现象的冲突性议题。目前,美国已经出现了一些政治再结盟的迹象,虽然不太可能会出现经典意义上的政治再结盟,但是次一级原则和价值方面的变化已经不可避免。

The U.S.general election of 2008 is an unprecedented issue in the U.S.history.It reflects what has been changed in American society and also is possible to start a political realigning process.Both the changes in demography,social ethos,the Pendulum Effect between different generations,and other social problems are providing preconditions for a political realignment.Iraq war,social welfare reform issue,and migrant issue are the definitive conflictive agendas to ignite a political realignment.Currently,there is some evidence of political realignment in the U.S.Even if it is not very possible for the U.S.to emerge a classical political realignment,some changes of sub principles and values would be unavoidable.