中美关系40年:回顾与前瞻

China-U.S.Relations(1979-2018):Retrospect and Prospect.

中美关系正常化已有30年。本文回顾中美建交以来30年的3个发展阶段,并展望未来10年的可能方向。中美建交背景特殊,其正常化留下历史话题。但作为我国改革开放的外来催化,中美关系正常化有力地促进了我国的国际合作,增进了我国的国家安全,并在全球化时代使我国走向和平发展的强国之路。本文指出中美建交后第一个10年的特征是"中国改革开放,中美战略妥协"。这期间中美在安全利益上互有借重,形成了特殊的战略合作。第二个10年的特征是"中国韬光养晦,中美调整关系"。这一时期国际格局随冷战结束出现重大变化,中美克服双边关系中的严重困难,逐步恢复和扩大合作。第三个10年的特征则是"中国抓住机遇,中美扩大共赢",这期间中美面临炸馆和撞机等严重事件,但双方以共同利益为重,慎重处理问题,并借反恐与金融合作,稳固并加深了两国互信。这一时期,中国国力显著增长,提前实现全面小康。展望未来10年,中美关系有望呈现"中国更加强盛,中美关系更加稳定"局面,世界体系将重新构建。

It has been 30 years since China and the U.S.normalized their relations. This paper reviews the three phases of their past relationship,and envisions its trend in the coming decade.It describes the special background of making Sino-U.S.official relations,and points out the liability of this'normalization'.As an external catalyst,this normalization has significantly advanced China's international cooperation and enhanced its national security.It has also motivated Beijing to embark on a world power status through peaceful development,at a time of globalization. In the first decade since China and the U.S.normalized relations,China had stressed its economic reform and opening,while they attained strategic compromise.Beijing and Washington nurtured special strategic cooperation as they depended upon each other for security interests.During the second decade,China observed the principle of'hiding one's capability and biding time',while the two countries adjusted their relationship.With the end of the Cold War,the world order also experienced a sea change.The two governments were able to overcome major difficulties,and incrementally restored and expanded cooperation.For the third decade,China has caught'important strategic opportunities',while the two countries have expanded a win-win bond.Despite serious challenges such as Embassy bombing in Belgrade in 1999 and air collision in South China Sea in 2001,China and the U.S.have cautiously handled relations with mutual fundamental interests in mind.In addition,they have stabilized and deepened mutual trust,through cooperation on anti-terror and ridding out financial crisis.Meantime,China's strength has obviously increased:it has achieved an overall well-off society well ahead of schedule.It is expected that China is ready for its strategic resurgence in the next decade.China and the U.S.will be better able to help stabilize the world jointly and collaboratively.Subsequently,the world system is likely to be re-structured.