纪特邮票发行需求量预测模型研究与实现

Research and realization of stamp circulation prediction model

本文在调查了国家邮政局在纪特邮票发行过程中的具体操作和分析了纪特邮票数据本身的特点后 ,采用了三种预测方法分析了我国近 2 0年来纪特邮票预定量数据 ,建立了纪特邮票预定量的数学模型 ,预测了今后几年纪特邮票预定量数据。通过对数学模型的求解 ,本文获得一些纪特邮票发行的内在规律 ,而这些规律对决策结构在决策过程中有一定的参考作用。

After investigating the stamp operation of GPO(General Post Office)and studying the character of the stamp circulation data themselves,this paper applies three up to date methods of prediction and prognostication to build mathematic models of circulation data according to analysis of the stamp data in recent 20 years,then predicts the stamp circulation data of the future years.This prediction data is important for GPO to make decision.