宏观环境变化、政治关联与现金持有

Macro- environment Fluctuation,Political Connection and Cash Holding

分别以政治周期(地方官员变动)和货币政策变动两个维度代表宏观政治环境、经济环境的变化,选取2004—2009年中国上市公司为样本,研究在宏观环境的变化下,政治关联与企业现金持有的关系。结果发现:政治关联与现金持有负相关,但这种关系会受到宏观环境变化的影响。具体而言:在官员更替当年,或者货币政策宽松时期,政府的"帮助之手"凸显,政治关联会显著降低现金持有;非官员更替当年,或者货币政策紧缩时期,考虑到政府"掠夺之手"的风险,政治关联的企业将采取稳健的策略,其现金持有与非关联企业无显著差异。

Using political cycle( local officials' turnover) and monetary policy to proxy for changing macro political and economical environment respectively,based on the sample of china listed firms in 2004- 2009,the paper studies the relation between political connection and cash holding in the context of changing macro environment. The result indicates that political connection is negatively related to cash holding and the relation is affected by changing macro environment. Specifically,in the year of governor turnover,or the year of easing monetary policy,'helping hand'from government is dominated and political connection reduces cash holding remarkably,while in the year of non governor turnover,or the year of contracted monetary policy,considering the risk from government's 'grabbing hand',political connected firms adopt conservative strategy and their cash holding is indifferent from non- connected firms.