未来20年我国经济发展前景分析

Analysis on Prospects of China's Economic Development at the Next twenty Years

我国经济经过连续35年的高速增长后,未来我国经济发展前景如何?在参照日韩台的经济发展历程情况下,本文认为决定一国经济发展潜力的是该国人均收入与世界平均收入的相对水平,只有当一国人均收入达到世界平均收入的2倍以后该国经济高速发展的潜力才会结束。当前我国人均收入仅为世界平均水平的60%,在城市化进程不断推进、非农劳动力的数量质量不断提高、产业自东向西不断转移、经济改革红利不断释放以及科技创新能力不断提升的情况下,今后10年甚至20年我国经济依然可以取得年均7%以上的高增长。

After rapid development of China's economy in the past 35 years, what's the prospects of China's economy in the future? Compared with what happened in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, I suppose, the decision of economic development potential is the relative level of per capita income in the country and the world average income. The potential of high speed development will come to end only if the per capita income is the two times of world average income. Our economy growth will expect to average 7% per year in the next 10 years, even 2 decades.