对“突然演习悖论”的分析

Analysis on Prediction Paradox

"突然演习悖论"又称"意外考试悖论"、"意外绞刑悖论"等,是一个著名的逻辑悖论,许多学术大家都对其有所讨论,但至今没有公认的消解方案。在对"突然演习悖论"的缘起做了简要叙述后,用非技术化的语言对此悖论及其改进和变种进行了简要的梳理和分析,重审了可能导致悖论的推理前提和步骤,并提出了自己的尝试性解决思路。

Prediction paradox,also called the surprise examination paradox or unexpected hanging para- dox,is a famous logic paradox,which has been discussed by many academic experts but has no publicly- recognized solutions.After expatiating on the origin of Prediction Paradox,this paper clarifies and analyzes the paradox and its improved variations in plain language,re-examines the premises and procedures leading to the paradox,and puts forward some thoughts of trial solutions.