我国房地产业发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Real Estate Development and Economic Growth in China

选取GDP作为衡量经济发展的数据支持,以房地产开发投资完成额作为房地产行业发展的适合量度,运用协整分析方法对我国房地产行业与经济增长之间的动态均衡关系作相关研究。结论是:房地产行业发展状况对当前GDP变动的影响并不是很显著,我国房地产行业的发展与经济增长之间不存在明显的因果关系。

This paper analyzes the dynamic and equilibrium relationship between real estate development and economic growth in China by means of cointegration analysis with GDP as data support for economic development judgment and final amount of investment in real estate as the proper measurement of real estate development. The conclusion is that the effect of real estate development on present GDP change is not significant and no obvious cause-and-effect relationship between real estate development and economic growth exists.