四川省“农业+旅游业”融合发展的实证研究——基于VAR模型

An empirical research on integrated development of agriculture and tourism industry in Sichuan province:Based on VAR model

选取四川省1997—2017年的时间序列数据,以农林牧渔总产值、国内旅游收入、入境游客人数3个指标作为变量,衡量四川省农业发展水平、旅游发展水平、国内旅游资源对国外游客吸引力情况。结果发现:入境游客每增加1%,农林牧渔总产值平均增加0. 27%;国内旅游收入每增加1%,农林牧渔总产值平均下降0. 62%;农林牧渔总产值与国内旅游收入间存在双向因果关系。脉冲响应结果表明:农业与旅游业、农业与入境游客都对来自彼此的信息冲击响应是长期正向的,随着期数增加,响应程度趋于平稳。

This paper selects the time series of Sichuan province from 1997 to 2017,and makes the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,domestic tourism income,inbound tourists three indicators respectively as variant to measure the Sichuan agricultural development level,development level of tourism,attraction index of domestic tourism resources on foreign tourists.It is found that:for every 1%increase in inbound tourists,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery increased by 0.27%on average.For every 1%increase in domestic tourism income,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 0.62%on average.There is a two-way causal relationship between the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and domestic tourism income.The result of impulse response indicates that agriculture and tourism industry,agriculture and inbound tourists have a long-term positive response to the information impact from each other,and the response level tends to be stable with the increase of the period.