金融市场的混沌型风险及其指数平滑测度

The Chaotic Risk of Financial Market and Its Exponential Smoothing Measure

金融市场的混沌型风险是所有市场交易主体的有限理性预期、决策和交易行为协同产生的。本文以证券市场为背景 ,论述金融市场混沌型风险主要是在交易主体模仿从众传染的内在非线性机制作用下形成的 ,然后利用指数平滑技术构建混沌型风险的测度指标。

The chaotic risk of the financial market is produced by the bounded natinal expectation,making decisions and behaviours of all investors.In the background of the security market,this paper discusses that the forming mechanism of the chaotic risks is imitative confomity echamism mainly.Then,it puts forward the exponential smoothing measure of the chaotic risks.