经济增长与第三产业结构合理化的动态关系:国际比较及启示

Dynamic relationship between economic growth and rationalization of the third industrial structure: international comparison and Enlightenment

在运用VAR模型和VEC模型对后期红利国家或地区组与中国的经济增长与第三产业结构合理化之间动态关系进行比较分析后得出,一是后期红利国家或地区组的人均GDP上升与第三产业结构偏离度下降之间具有长期积极的相互影响。而中国只是人均GDP上升对第三产业结构偏离度下降具有长期积极的影响,但影响有限。二是相对于后期红利国家或地区组,中国经济增长短期修正偏离非均衡误差的能力更强。由此,一是要转变经济增长方式,保持中高速经济增长速度;二是推动第三产业的供给侧结构性改革;三是加大人力资本的投资。

This paper uses VAR model and VEC model to compare and analyze the dynamic relationship of the economic growth and the rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure between the late-demographic dividend Groups and China.The conclusion:the first,it is a long-term positive effect between the rise of per capita GDP and decline of the tertiary industrial structure deviation degree in the late-demographic dividend Groups.Although the rise of per capita GDP has a long-term positive impact on decreased of tertiary industrial structure deviation degree,but the impact is limited.The second,compared with the late-demographic dividend Groups,China’s economic growth is more capable of correcting deviations from disequilibrium in the short-term.Therefore,the first,China should change the mode of economic growth,maintain the speed of economic growth at the middle and high speed;the second,promote the structutal reform of the supply side of the tertiary industry;the third,increase the investment in human capital.