试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报

RESEARCH ON SEISMIC QUIESCENCE USING MAGNITUDE CUMULATIVE SUM METHOD AND PROPABILITY PREDICTION OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES

以表征区域地震活动强度背景的震级期望值作为单个地震事件的目标值 ,利用震级累积和C值随时间的变化分析地震活动相对平静现象 ,并给出其显著性检验 .文中还定量分析了平静异常与大震的关系 ,提出了利用核函数对大震发生时间进行概率外推的方法 .用上述方法对华北区的山西、张家口—渤海地震带的部分地区及新疆区域进行计算 ,显示该方法能够描述地震活动平静现象 ,并可合理地对未来大震发生时间进行概率外推估计 .

Based on cumulative sum (CUSUM) method in quality control theory, seismic quiescence is research by means of changes of CUSUM value. The magnitude expectation, reflecting some characteristics of the region's background is taken as expected magnitude of each event. The significance of seismic quiescence is analyzed. We quantitatively study the relation between quiescence and strong earthquake and extrapolate the probability of earthquake occurrence using kernel estimate method. The results of Shanxi, Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone in North China and parts of Xinjiang show that seismic quiescence can be effectively described by cumulative sum method, and kernel estimate is a good way to make probability prediction of earthquakes.