北京市高温热浪脆弱性评价

Research on Evaluation System of Heat Wave Vulnerability in Beijing City

城市容易受到高温热浪天气的影响。为有效评价城市系统受高温热浪影响的脆弱性程度,提高其适应高温热浪影响的能力,作者在研究城市系统受气候变化影响的脆弱性基础之上,从暴露度、敏感度和适应能力等方面选择城市地区高温热浪脆弱性评价指标,构建高温热浪脆弱性评价指标体系,对北京市各区县的高温热浪脆弱性水平进行分析。研究结果表明,高温热浪日数、室外工作人口比例和65岁以上人口比例是影响北京市高温热浪脆弱性年际变化的重要因素;城市建筑密度、城市人口密度、低收入人口比例、建成区绿化覆盖率、高温预警和信息传播能力、公众对高温危害的认知程度、基础设施建设和服务水平七项指标在区别不同区域高温热浪脆弱性分布方面发挥了重要作用;2008年~2012年北京市高温热浪脆弱性水平呈现波动上升趋势,空间分布呈现出城市核心区域脆弱性最高、南部和东北部地区次之、西北部地区最弱的特征。由此,从城市管理和政策保障角度提出了政策提议。

The purpose of this article is to establish the evaluation index system of heat wave in urban region.Choosing the indicators of heat wave vulnerability evaluation index system by analyzing the relationship between human society and nature system and using the method of expert advice and actual investigation.Then the evaluation index system is founded and applied in Beijing City to assess the heat wave vulnerability.The results show that number of high temperature days,share of out-door working population and share of population with an age of 65 and older affect annual change of heat wave vulnerability significantly,urban built-up area density,urban population density,share of low-income population and other four indicators can identify the difference of heat wave vulnerability among different regions efficiently,high vulnerability zones are located in the core area of Beijing City,middle vulnerability zones are located in the south and northeast of Beijing City,low vulnerability zones are located in the northwest of Beijing City,the level of vulnerability in recent years shows an increasing trend.Policy recommendations have been drawn from the perspective of enhancing the factors that affect heat wave vulnerability in urban area.