地价、房价和城市空间结构——以北京市为例

Land Price,Housing Price and Urban Spatial Structure:A Case of Beijing

作者通过理论分析和数值模拟论证土地价格与房价的关系,以期进一步认识中国房地产市场的发展与价格形成机制。首先,基于城市经济理论模型,在开放和单中心城市模型框架下,印证了土地需求是派生需求,即土地是住房生产函数的一个投入要素,因而土地价格受住房价格的影响,随着到城市中心距离的增加,房价不断下降,带动地价以更快的速率随之下降。其次,基于北京市1999年~2003年的土地出让和房地产交易数据,估计了北京住房价格的空间变化趋势和住房生产函数。最后,通过数值模拟分析了北京房价上升对地价的影响,模拟结果表明,房价的不断上升促使投资者和开发者形成房价会持续走高的预期,从而进一步抬升土地价格,只有当房价得到一定控制之后,土地价格才会得到抑制。

The importance of price relationship between land and housing to the development of real estate markets in China and to policy implications is well recognized.This paper contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of market relationship between land and housing prices;and presenting results that show housing prices as the driver for soaring land prices,not the other way around.In the paper,we first conclude that land is a derived demand for housing output by examining the relationship between land price gradient and housing price gradient under a conventional framework of urban economics.And then we estimate parameters of a CES-type housing production function using Beijing land and real estate transaction data.Finally,we simulate land price responses to housing market development and show that the increase in housing prices will lead to growth in land prices.The paper wraps up with policy discussions and suggestions for development and reform of real estate markets in China.