商业银行海外投资布局的影响因素

Factors to Affect Overseas Investment Layout of Commercial Banks

本文梳理了商业银行海外投资理论,采集了2001～2009年15个样本国的面板数据,对中国四大商业银行海外投资布局影响因素进行实证分析,认为中国四大商业银行海外投资布局应以港澳地区作为海外投资的初期重点,以亚太地区作为海外投资的中期重点,着重开发日本、澳大利亚等中心国家,作为其开拓欧美市场的过渡;以欧洲和北美洲为长期重点,着重开发欧盟、美国和加拿大市场,增加中国商业银行海外投资经验;兼顾非洲和南美洲地区,着重开发与中国具有良好经贸往来的南非和巴西市场,选择重点市场进行合理布局。

This paper reviews the theory of the overseas investment of commercial bank and with the panel data of 15 sample countries from 2001 to 2009,empirically analyses the factors to affect overseas investment layout of China's four major commercial banks.The author argues that their overseas investment layout should be focused on Hong Kong and Macao at early stage,and at medium stage,should focus on Asia-Pacific region,especially the core countries,such as Japan and Australia,which can be transitional markets to develop European-American markets.In the long term,the overseas investment layout should be focused on Europe and North America and develop EU's,American and Canadian markets to accumulate the experience of overseas investment.At the same time,Africa and South America should be taken into account and the markets in South Africa and Brazil,the countries with good economic and trade exchanges with China,should be focused and developed.China's four major commercial banks should choose key markets to make rational layouts.