中国股票市场适度融资规模研究

A Study of the Moderate Financing Scale of China’s Stock Market

从长期看,实体经济与股市之间应当存在内在的正向联系,但本文的实证表明,当前中国股市走势与实体经济之间存在较明显偏离,股市过分低迷。股市融资规模过大,实际融资规模远远超过适度融资规模,造成股市供需失衡,是形成这种偏离的一个重要原因。应适度放缓融资节奏,降低融资规模;完善退市制度,形成优胜劣汰的竞争机制;实行上市公司强制性向二级市场投资者现金分红制度。考虑到上市公司的公司治理、公司行业特征、企业和产品生命周期以及未来投资机会等存在较大差异,因此可以制定弹性的现金分红标准。

In the long term,there is a positive link between the real economy and the stock market.However,the empirical analysis of this paper shows that,at present,the trend of Chinese stock market has obviously deviated from the real economy and the stock market is extremely in the doldrums.An important reason for this deviation is that equity financing scale is too large and the actual financing scale is much greater than the moderate scale,which results in the imbalance between the supply and the demand of stock market.It is necessary to slow financing pace down moderately,reduce financing scale,improve delisting system,form a competitive mechanism that the fittest is the survival,implement a mandatory cash dividend system of listed companies for investors in secondary market.Considering the greate difference in the corporate governance,the industry characteristics,the firm and product life cycle,the future investment opportunities of the listed companies,a flexible cash dividend standard should be developed.