单个银行财务稳定性评估方法探讨

A Study of the Method to Assess the Financial Stability of Individual Bank

本文构建了以多维度盈亏平衡分析、安全边际分析和资产报酬率(ROA)影响因素分析为基本框架的单个银行财务稳定性评估方法体系,并利用主要上市银行的相关数据进行实证检验。研究表明:目前各家样本银行具有较低的保本点和较高的安全边际率,处于财务稳定状态;在影响资产报酬率ROA的各因素中,平均利息率和净利差对银行财务稳定性的影响最大,验证了净利差是目前中国商业银行盈利的主要来源,非利息收入占比、成本收入比、存贷比和广义货币供应量(M2)对银行财务稳定也有显著影响,重视这些因素的改进对提高银行财务稳定性水平有一定的作用。

This paper constructs a method system to assess the financial stability of individual bank.The basic framework of the method system consists of multi-dimensional breakeven analysis,safety margin-analysis and the factors to impact ROA.Based on the data of main listed banks,the paper presents an empirical analysis.The results show that each sample bank has a lower breakeven point and a higher safety margin-ratio,which means the bank is in a state of financial stability.Among the factors to impact ROA,average interest rate and net interest margin have the greatest impacts on the financial stability of bank,which verifies that the net interest margin is the main source of the profits of Chinese commercial banks;the ratios of non-interest income,cost to income,loan to deposit and the broad money supply(M2) also have significant impacts on the financial stability of bank.It will stengthen the financial stability of bank to pay attention to the improvement of the factors.