房地产开发对信贷资产组合风险的影响

Impacts of Real Estate Development on the Risks of Credit Portfolio

本文基于统计数据,对房地产开发与信贷资产组合风险进行实证研究,结果表明,房价波动对银行业房地产开发信贷资产构成显著影响,房价越高则坏账率越高。但房价向上波动时,并没有显著提高房地产信贷资产的比例即风险暴露水平。此外,房地产信贷资产质量受到SHIBOR的影响较为显著,SHIBOR作为银行的融资成本,当融资成本处于上升区间时,房地产开发信贷资产的风险暴露水平提升,同时坏账率也随之上升。这说明在银行融资成本上升时,房地产开发行业因其能够接受较高的借贷成本,故在银行信贷资产池中占据了更大的份额,但同时坏账率相应提高,资产质量下降。

Based on statistical data,this article provides an empirical study of the real estate development and the risks of credit portfolio.The results show that the fluctuations of house price significantly impact the credit assets of banking sector in real estate development,and the higher the house price is,the higher the proportion of bad debts,but the upward fluctuations of house price do not significantly raise the proportion of the credit assets in real estate,i.e.the level of risk exposure.In addition,the quality of credit assets in real estate is significantly impacted by SHIBOR.The SHIBOR is the financing cost of bank.When the SHIBOR rises,so do the level of risk exposure of credit assets in real estate and the proportion of bad debts.It means that,when the financing cost of bank rises,the sector of real estate development accounts for a greater proportion of the credit assets of bank because it can accept a higher borrowing cost,but the proportion of bad debts rises alongside and the quality of assets declines at the same time.