商业银行核心资本充足率的影响因素——基于中国上市银行的实证分析

The Factors to Influence the Core Capital Adequacy Ratio of Commercial Banks——An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Listed Banks

本文以中国16家上市商业银行的数据为研究样本,使用PVAR(面板向量自回归)模型对影响核心资本充足率的因素进行分析。研究发现:资本水平指数及净利润增速对核心资本充足率具有显著性影响;除不良贷款增速外,其他变量在长期内对核心资本充足率均呈现出正向影响;在影响核心资本充足率的因素中,除自身外,变量影响程度的排列顺序为资本水平指数、净利润增速、资产规模增速、不良贷款增速以及贷款占比变动。中国银行业应加大对资产结构的调整力度,寻求利润来源的多元化;同时也要逐步建立科学的内源融资渠道,避免对外源融资的过度依赖。

This paper uses the data of Chinese 16 listed commercial banks and PVAR(panel vector auto regression) model to analyze the factors to influence core capital adequacy ratio. It is found that the capital level index and net profit growth significantly influence core capital adequacy ratio; except for non-performing-loan growth, other variables show positive impacts on the ratio in the long term; The degree of the impacts of factors to influence the ratio, except for the ratio itself, is in such an order: capital level index, net profit growth, asset size growth, non-performing-loan growth, change in loan ratio. Chinese banking sector should promote the adjustment to asset structure, form diversified sources of profits, and gradually establish perfect endogenously-financing channels so as to avoid excessive dependence on exogenously-financing channels.