货币政策反应规则与房价波动的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Monetary Policy Response Rules and Housing Price Fluctuation

本文运用模型推导包含房价的最优利率规则与货币供应量规则,并进行模拟分析。研究结果表明:无论采用利率还是货币供应量进行调控,如果货币政策不对房价波动做出反应,通货膨胀率将更低,产出波动和损失函数将更小;从两个货币工具调控效果的比较来看,无论货币政策对房价波动做出反应或不做出反应,利用货币供应量进行调控时,通货膨胀率更接近于目标值,产出波动更小,损失函数也更小。

This paper use a model to construct the optimal interest rate rules and money supply rules concerning housing prices, and presents a simulation analysis. The results of the paper show that, whether the interest rate or money supply is used for regulation, the inflation rate will be lower, and the output fluctuations and loss function will be small if monetary policy does not respond to housing price fluctuation; according to the comparison of the regulatory effects of the two monetary tools, whether the monetary policy responds to housing price fluctuation or not, inflation rate is closer to target, output fluctuation is smaller, and function loss is also smaller when money supply is used for regulation.