货币政策、影子银行规模增速与经济增长

Monetary Policy,Growth in Shadow Banking Scale and Economic Growth

本文通过构建包含影子银行增长率、M2增速及经济增长率的MS-VAR模型并选取1990~2014年的年度数据进行实证研究,结果表明:两区制下,区制2中影子银行规模增速对经济增长的影响效果要大于区制1中的作用效果,即货币扩张时,影子银行规模增速减慢,对经济增长的影响较弱,而在货币紧缩时,影子银行规模增速加快,对经济增长的影响较强。

This paper constructs a MS-VAR model concerning shadow banking growth, M2 growth and economic growth,and uses the annual data during 1990-2014 for empirical study. The results of the paper show that, in two-regime system, the impact of the growth in shadow banking scale in regime 2 on economic growth is greater than that in regime1,which means that the reduction in growth in shadow banking scale has less influence on economic growth when the currency expands; the increase in growth in shadow banking scale has more influence on economic growth when currency deflates.