中国超额住房贷款压力测度研究

A Research on the Measurement of China’s Pressure of Excessive Housing Loans

本文从住房需求的角度构建均衡住房贷款的理论模型,估计中国4个直辖市超额住房贷款的压力及其决定因素。结果表明,超额住房贷款的规模取决于城市的地区收入、住房价格和首付比例;北京和上海存在较大的超额住房贷款压力,天津和重庆目前尚不存在超额住房贷款压力;拥有较高超额住房贷款压力的城市,住房价格往往高于其他城市,这些城市首付比例的杠杆效应也十分显著。

The authors of this paper construct a theoretical model of balanced housing loans from the perspective of housing demand to estimate the pressure and determinants of excessive housing loans in China’s four municipalities.The results of the paper show that the scale of excessive housing loans depends on the regional income,the housing price and the down-payment ratio of the city;there is a great pressure of excessive housing loans in Beijing and Shanghai,but not yet in Tianjin and Chongqing;the housing prices in cities with more housing loan pressures tend to be higher than other cities,and the leverage effects of the down-payment ratios in these cities are also significant.