中国城市化进程对雾霾污染的影响及趋势预测

Influence of China's urbanization on haze pollution and trend prediction

选取中国31个省份的相关数据,运用空间计量和新陈代谢预测方法,对中国城市化发展对雾霾污染的影响及二者的发展趋势进行了预判。结果显示:户籍人口城市化和产业城市化与雾霾污染存在U形曲线关系,土地城市化与雾霾污染存在倒U形曲线关系;户籍人口城市化与产业城市化均已进入二次曲线拐点右侧阶段;低收入地区的人口城市化与雾霾污染之间不存在显著作用关系;土地城市化会加剧雾霾污染;产业城市化与雾霾污染存在U形曲线关系,且已进入二次曲线拐点右侧阶段;高收入地区的人口城市化、产业城市化及土地城市化均与雾霾污染之间存在倒U形曲线关系,户籍人口城市化与产业城市化均已进入二次曲线拐点右侧。预测结果显示,尽管在未来几年雾霾污染与城市化水平将继续呈现上升态势,但二者之间已初步呈现"脱钩"关系。

This essay selects data of China’s 31 provinces,and uses spatial panel data model and metabolism method to test the influence of urbanization upon haze pollution of China and predict the trend.The results show:Both the improvement of population urbanization and industrial urbanization can reduce the level of haze pollution;Land urbanization can lead to deterioration of haze pollution;For low income regions,there exists a u-shaped curve relationship between industrial urbanization and haze pollution,and the value of industrial urbanization has been located on the right side of inflection point of quadratic curve;For high income regions,there exists an inverted u-shaped curve relations between urbanization and haze pollution,and both the value of registered population urbanization and industrial urbanization have been located on the right side of inflection point of quadratic curve.The prediction results show that although haze pollution and urbanization level will continue to rise in the next few years,the'decoupling relation'has been preliminarily presented.