城市基础设施项目进度的控制

Progress control of urban infrastructure project

应用系统动力学理论确定城市基础设施项目进度系统的边界,在项目生命周期内从进度形成机制的角度对进度风险事件进行了识别,并结合问卷调查建立了项目进度仿真模型,分析了城市基础设施项目进度的变化趋势及风险事件影响下的进度偏差行为模式。结果显示:城市基础设施项目实施时间及成本是计划的1. 278倍和1. 284倍,影响项目实施时间及成本的关键风险分别为中期变更风险、建设成本超支风险、群体事件风险。在此基础上,结合阶段风险事件影响下的进度偏差行为模式提出了应对策略。

System dynamics is used to determine the boundary of the urban infrastructure project progress system,and progress risk events are identified from the perspective of the progress formation mechanism within the project life cycle.And a system dynamics model based on a questionnaire survey is established to analyze the developing tendency of urban infrastructure project progress and progress deviation behavior mode affected by risk events.The results show:The actual time and cost of urban infrastructure projects are 1.278 times and 1.284 times as compared to those of the original plans;The key risks affecting the time and cost are medium-term change risk and construction cost over-spending risk respectively,and the sensitive risks affecting both time and cost are financial risk and colony affairs risk.Further,according to the behavioral pattern of progress deviation influenced by phased risk events,responding proposals are made for relevant strategies to promote a higher progress control level for urban infrastructural projects.