意愿留居和意愿返乡农业转移人口二孩生育意愿比较

Comparative study on second child’s fertility willingness of agricultural transfer population from the perspective of willing to stay in cities and willing to return hometown

在全面二孩政策背景下,运用LOGIT模型对农业转移人口二孩生育意愿进行了研究。结果显示:意愿留居和意愿返乡农业转移人口二孩生育意愿的影响机制不同;对意愿留居农业转移人口而言,新生代农业转移人口生育意愿更强,教育程度对二孩生育意愿存在倒U型影响,家庭收入提高、从事中高端职业、省内流动和参加城乡居民基本养老保险、医疗保险都能显著提升二孩生育意愿;对意愿返乡农业转移人口而言,家庭收入、教育程度、流动范围和职业类型对二孩生育意愿的影响均不显著;二孩生育意愿更多受年龄、一孩性别等影响。认为政府应针对意愿留居和意愿返乡农业转移人口的生育意愿特征及其影响机制,制定具有针对性的促进二孩生育政策。

Under the background of the implementation of the universal two-child policy,this essay uses the LOGIT Model and the stepwise regression method to study the second child’s fertility willingness of the migrant agricultural population.The results show that:The influence mechanism of agricultural transfer population between the intending to stay and the intending to return is different;For the willingness to stay in the agricultural transfer population,the new generation of agricultural transfer population has a stronger fertility willingness,and the influence of education level on the second child’s fertility willingness presents an inverted'U'type,the increase in household income,the employment of high-end occupations,the province’s internal mobility and participation in urban and rural residents’basic endowment insurance,medical insurance can significantly enhance their second child’s fertility willingness;For the willingness to return in the agricultural transfer population,the family income,education level,mobility range and occupation type have no significant influences on the second child’s fertility willingness,and the decision on the second child’s birth will take into account factors such as their age and gender.Accordingly,the government should aim at the differences in the characteristics of fertility willingness and the mechanism of influence of the agricultural transfer population who wish to stay and return,and make precise and appropriate policies and measures to promote the second child’s fertility willingness.