中国城市收缩状况评估——基于地级及以上城市市辖区数据的测算

Evaluation on China’s shrinking cities: a calculation based on the prefectural and above cities’ data

构建了城市收缩水平评价指标体系,评估分析了2011-2016年中国287个地级及以上城市的收缩水平,并运用探索性空间数据分析方法分析了城市收缩的空间分布格局。结果显示:约42. 2%的城市处于收缩状态,小城市、资源型城市和少数民族聚居型城市呈收缩状态;城市收缩水平呈现出全局空间相关性,城市收缩水平空间分布的区域差异显著,呈现出自东北向西北逐渐由冷点过渡为热点的空间格局;中国的城市收缩可分为四类空间聚类模式:H-H型增长式格局,H-L型内部增长式格局、周边收缩的极化式格局,L-H型内部收缩、周边增长的空心化格局,L-L型塌陷式格局,收缩最严重的城市集中分布在东北地区。

The essay evaluates the shrinkage levels of 287 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2011 to 2016 by constructing an evaluation index system,and analyzes the spatial distribution pattern of city shrinking using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis.The results show that about 42.2%of China’s cities are in the state of shrinking,and small cities,resource-based cities,and ethnic minority cities are the main categories of shrinking in China.The city shrinking level presents a global spatial correlation,and the city shrinking horizontal spatial distribution has significant regional differences,showing a spatial pattern that gradually transits from cold to hot spots from northeast to northwest.China’s city shrinking can be divided into four types of spatial clustering patterns:HH-type growing pattern,HL-type internal growing,peripheral shrinking polarization pattern,LH-type internal shrinking,peripheral growing hollowing pattern,LL-type collapsing pattern,The most severe shrinking cities are concentrated in the Northeast.