差序政府信任的动态变化:对城市治理的意义

A Research on Urban Governance——from the Perspective of “Hierarchial Trust”

差序政府信任反映结构特征。以往研究表明在中国的确存在'央强地弱'的差序信任,但差序信任的地域分布、时间演化规律以及与城市治理之间的关系如何有待进一步研究。本文基于计算机辅助电话调查于2011年、2012年和2015年三次对全国副省级以上36个城市5万多样本的差序信任调查结果,经统计分析得出如下结论:第一,从当下看,中国'央强地弱'差序政府信任依然存在;第二,从历时看,中国差序政府信任的动态呈现削弱趋势;第三,从地域看,中国差序信任存在明显地区集群特点;第四,从模式看,差序信任是城市治理类型的重要解释变量。这些结论将有益于全面把握当下中国政府信任结构的动态性,进而科学洞悉我国政治心理动态演化特性,有利于有效面对和处理政府信任危机,从而为现行制度的运行和改革提供必要的预警和启示。

'Hierarchical Trust'reflects the characteristic of institutional structures.The past studies show that the pattern of governmental trust in China is characterized as'strong central,weak locals'.However,the geographical distribution,the law of its time temporal evolution of hierarchical trust and its the relationship with urban governance should be further studied.We conducted computer-assisted telephone interviews on'Hierarchical Trust'in 2011,2012 and 2015.And collected 50 000 samples in 36 cities above the subprovincial level in China.Some conclusions were made from our research:(1)The pattern of'strong central,weak locals'still exists in China.(2)The'strong central,weak locals'character is weakening along the time line.(3)China's hierarchical trust has obvious regional stratification.(4)From the viewpoint of our model,hierarchical trust is an important explanatory variable for explaining urban governance types.These conclusions are helpful to understand the dynamics of government trust in China;In further explor understand the political psychology dynamics in the government trust structures,and thus provide early warnings and lessons for the operation and development of the existing system.