摘要
The first and foremost task of communication network planning is macro forecasting to theservice volume ,and the quality of planning ultimately depends upon the accuracy of forecasting. Theconventional methods usually as forecasting model are increase rate method, time sequence extensionmethod, regression correlation analysis method. However, nowadays in market economy drvelopingstage ,to meet the vigorous demand, communication servtice business, particularly the telecommunicationservice is drveloping rapidly such that forcasting by the conventional method fails achieve the goalfavourably. Thus we should emancipate our mind thinking deeply into the communication conoiationand the method of forecasting. To this end ,the author exploited the laiter ,introducing GM(1, 1) modelas forcastzng means. Comparint with the forecasting results from several other niodels the GM(1.1)has better reliability. Is has been put into practice in many urban telecomrnunication network planning. Allresults obtatned are desirable.
The first and foremost task of communication network planning is macro forecasting to theservice volume ,and the quality of planning ultimately depends upon the accuracy of forecasting. Theconventional methods usually as forecasting model are increase rate method, time sequence extensionmethod, regression correlation analysis method. However, nowadays in market economy drvelopingstage ,to meet the vigorous demand, communication servtice business, particularly the telecommunicationservice is drveloping rapidly such that forcasting by the conventional method fails achieve the goalfavourably. Thus we should emancipate our mind thinking deeply into the communication conoiationand the method of forecasting. To this end ,the author exploited the laiter ,introducing GM(1, 1) modelas forcastzng means. Comparint with the forecasting results from several other niodels the GM(1.1)has better reliability. Is has been put into practice in many urban telecomrnunication network planning. Allresults obtatned are desirable.
