摘要
关于服务需求弹性的研究在分析方法上可以分为两类:一是从需求层面;二是从供给或技术层面。本文采用第二种方法,即基于 Baumol 模型,从技术层面系统估算了20世纪90年代中国各地区服务业以及服务业各部门需求的价格弹性与收入弹性,并得出以下主要结论:(1)在全国范围内,服务需求富有收入弹性的地区相对较少。这说明,一方面,中国的服务需求与服务部门发展处于一种极不均衡的状态;另一方面,中国的收入水平即经济发展水平仍然很低。(2)需求富有价格弹性的地区与部门所占比例较小,而缺乏价格弹性的地区与部门所占比例较大。这些缺乏价格弹性的服务部门在很多地区都是"滞后部门",再加上近年来服务价格的不断上升,因此很容易诱发"成本病"问题,对此应该引起警惕。(3)无论以实际值还是以名义值衡量,服务部门占 GDP 比重随收入水平提高而上升的地区并不是很多,基本集中于服务需求缺乏价格弹性的地区。
Based upon Baumol Model,this paper systematically estimates the price and income elasticity of demand for China's different regions' service sectors in 1990s,and some conclusions have reached.Firstly,only a few re- gions have the large value of income elasticity of demand,which means China's service demand and service sector development are in vast disequilibrium on the one hand,on the other hand,China's economy is still less developed.Second- ly,the demand is price—inelastic in most of the regions as well as most of the service sectors.The cost disease may happen as most of the price—inelastic services are also stagnant.Lastly,measuring by real terms as well as nominal terms,there are a few regions whose ratios of the value—added of each service sector to GDP will tend to rise as the income levels rise.
出处
《南大商学评论》
2004年第2期50-71,共22页
Nanjing Business Review
关键词
服务业
鲍莫尔模型
需求弹性
成本病
Service Industry
Baumol Model
Demand Elasticity
Cost Disease
