技术进步与中国经济可持续增长的理论分析和经验研究

The Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Research on Technology Advancement and Sustainable Development of Chinese Economy

本文试图从理论分析和经验研究两方面,对技术进步与中国经济可持续发展之间的关系进行探讨。我们分别在扩展的索罗模型和内生增长模型中引入不可再生资源约束,证明技术进步是实现一国经济长期持续增长的关键;在经验研究方面,我们认为,基于索罗余值法的测算方法,不能直接简单地用于发展中国家或地区的技术进步测度,本文则发展了一个基于开放条件下国际技术溢出效应的修正的索罗测度法。结果表明:我国技术进步水平在很大程度上取决于国际技术溢出效应,今后应进一步扩大开放、深化结构调整,实施有效技术进步战略,加快转变增长方式。

From theoretical analysis and empirical re- search,this paper investigates the relationship between technology advancement and sustainable development of Chinese economy.We introduce nonrenewable resource constraints into extensive Solow model,and endogenous growth model,and we try to prove that technology ad- vancement is the key to long-term sustainable growth of economy in one country.In our empirical research,we think that the approach by Solow test method can not be simply applied into test of technology advancement in developing countries and regions.This paper develops a revised Solow test method about international technolo- gy spillover effect in open system.Results show that technology advancement in China is mostly determined by international technology spillover effect.So in the fu- ture we should develop further open-door policy,deepen structural adjustment,implement more effective strate- gy of technology advancement and quickly transform the way of growth.