不完全信息、规则刚性与制度博弈——对冲基金冲击发展中国家的一种解释

Imperfect Information,Rule Rigidity and Institutional Game——An Explanation of Hedge Funds Attacking Developing Countries

在经济全球化背景下推进证券期货市场改革开放和稳定发展必须关注国际游资可能发动的对本国金融体系和制度的冲击。本文建立了对冲基金和新兴市场经济国家或地区政府的不完全信息静态博弈模型;分析了决定对冲基金是否发动冲击的制度因素,以及政府防范对冲基金冲击和合理利用外来资金的政策含义。

We must pay attention to the possible attacks brought by hedge funds,in the background of economic globalization and China promotes its reformation and o- pening of security market and futures market.At first this paper establishes a static imperfect information model of the game between the government of the devel- oping country and hedge funds.Then it analyzes the in- stitutional factors which determine whether the hedge funds attack or not,and why the commercial bank will do harm to its country and help the hedge funds.Finally it put forth some suggestions about bow to prevent the hedge funds' attack.