房地产与宏观经济

Real Estate and the Macroeconomy

21世纪初,美国经济仍处于上升阶段,其中一个重要因素就是全国房地产市场异常强劲的态势及其在地区经济周期中所发挥的重要作用。本文旨在研究房地产市场和宏观经济现象之间的多重关系,并通过20世纪80～90年代的大量数据的搜集,探索整个国家经济周期中商业和住宅地产的进入情况,以及在整个需求上升中房地产的地位。与此同时,也将以房地产作为抵押对金融部门所造成的风险以及房地产通胀所带来的不同结果纳入分析。

In the beginning of the 21 century,the U.S.economy is still on the way of expansion.It's partly motivated by the extraordinary strength of national real estate markets and the powerful role that real estate played in regional business cycles.This paper put focus on several dimensions of the relationship between the real estate market and macroeconomic performance.By collecting lots of data during the last twenty years,the paper explores the involvement of both commercial and residential real estate in the national economic cycle,along with the role of real estate in the expansion of aggregate demand.Meanwhile,it also consider the risks to the financial sector from using real estate as collateral and the distributional consequences of real estate inflation.