全球经济失衡及其调整：新世纪的挑战

Global Economic Imbalances and Global Economic Adjustments:A Challenge to the New Century

失衡与调整是新世纪全球经济的两大主题词。迄今,国内外对全球经济失衡形成机制、由谁调整、如何调整等问题存在着激烈的争论,远未达成共识。本文研究表明:全球经济失衡包括三个层次,国际收支失衡是最普遍使用的层次;全球经济失衡是否具有可持续性具有重要的政策含义;只有全面考察全球经济失衡的内在形成机制,我们才能避免犯"盲人摸象"的错误;失衡的错综复杂性,决定了全球经济调整将是一条缓慢、长期和艰辛之路;全球经济调整的关键是对储蓄投资失衡关系的调整;为避免全球经济硬着陆的发生,美国及其他主要国家应主动承担起调整的责任;中国应调整出口导向战略,把经济增长更多地建立在依靠内需的基础上。

Imbalances and adjustments are two key words of the global economy.So far,people can't reach a consensus on the cause of global economic imbalances and the problem of'Who to adjust,How to adjust'at all.This paper indicates:Global economic imbalances include three levels,imbalances of payments are the level widespreadly used.The duration of global imbalances has the importment policy meanings.We can avoid making a mistake of'the blindmen and the elephant'unless we analyse the inherent creative mechanism of global imbalances comprehensively.The complexity of imbalances determines that global economic adjustments are doomed to a road of slow long-term and hard adjustments.The key to global adjustments is to adjust the relation between savings and investment.U.S.and other great countries should take on responsibility of adjustments so that hard landing can be avoided.China should adjust its export strategy,and Chinese economic growth should base on domestic demand.