耕地面积、劳动供给、工资水平与城镇化的非线性关系——一个理论模型及其门槛面板数据的实证

Farming Area,Labor Supply and Wage's Non-Linear Relationship with Urbanization in China: A Theory Model and Its Empirical Analysis Via Threshold Panel Data Method

以农户收益最大化为微观基础,从体现小农经济的城乡经济均衡入手,构建相应的城镇化理论模型,得到城乡劳动力均衡就业比重与相关影响因素的关系,分析耕地面积、劳动人口、城镇工资水平等存在较大的异质性的条件下,各因素对城乡均衡就业比重可能存在门槛效应,通过门槛面板数据对模型进行了实证检验,结果表明门槛效应的确存在。劳均耕地面积太小、要素集聚水平低,不利于农村劳动力的释放和城镇化的推进,提高城镇工资水平,保持适度人口增长与劳动力供给将有利于城镇化的发展。因此,本文认为应提高农业要素的集聚水平和农民工工资水平;推动现代化进程与工业反哺农业;同时,加快生育政策的改革,保持平稳的劳动力供给水平。

Based on the micro foundation of maximizing the farmers' income and the urban and rural economic equilibrium of traditional agricultural economy,this paper constructs a theoretical model of urbanization,obtains the relationship between urban and rural labor employment equilibrium with their determining factors,and analyzes the main factors affecting the equilibrium employment and their possible threshold effects under the condition that there are large heterogeneity among arable land,labor force,and urban wages. Econometric analysis of threshold panel data shows that the threshold effects do exist.Small arable lands,low- level of factors agglomeration are not conducive to the release of the rural labor force and the advance of urbanization. Increasing urban wages and maintaining moderate population growth and labor supply will be beneficial to the development of urbanization. According to theoretical and empirical results,this paper argues that we should increase the agglomeration level of agricultural production factors and the wages for migrant workers,and promote the process of modernization and industry nurturing agriculture,and meanwhile speed up the reform of family planning policy and maintain a stable labor supply.