吉林省农业机械总动力发展研究——基于主成分分析

Study on the Development of Total Power of Agricultural Machinery in Jilin Province——Based on Principal Component Analysis

吉林省作为粮食大省,农业机械化的发展对于实现农业现代化至关重要。为此,采用吉林省1994-2013年的相关数据,运用主成分分析法,对吉林省农业机械总动力及其9个影响因素进行相关研究,最终建立因变量ZY与自变量ZX1~ZX9的多元线性回归模型。模型中,只有农村恩格尔系数与农业机械总动力呈负相关,其余自变量均与农业机械总动力呈正相关。粮食单产的系数为0.207;农民受教育程度的系数为0.276,相对较低;其余自变量的系数均在0.34~0.37之间,基本相差不大。最后,提出吉林省要继续加强宏观资本、微观生产资料及科技管理要素的投入,大力培育新型职业农民的建议,以适应新时期农机发展对人才与科技的需求。

As the food great province,it is very crucial to the development of agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province.This paper analyzes the total power of agricultural machinery and the influence factors by principal component analysis method using the relevant data of Jilin Province during 1994-2013.The multi linear regression model is established for variable ZYand independent variables by ZX1-ZX9.In the model,only the rural Engel coefficient and the total power of agricultural machinery is negatively correlated,the rest of the independent variables are positively correlated.The coefficient of per unit area yield of grain is 0.207,and the coefficient of farmers' education level is 0.276,relatively low.And the coefficients of the other independent variables have little difference between 0.34~0.37.Finally,it put forward to strengthen the elements of macro capital support,micro production and technology input in the future in Jilin Province.In addition,it need to strengthen the cultivation of new peasants occupation,to meet the demand for talent and technology of agricultural development in the new period.