论城市化与经济发展的相关性——对钱纳里研究成果的辨析与延伸

Urbanization and Economic Development: Review and ex-tension of Hollis Chenery's Study

本文从对广为引用的钱纳里关于人均国民生产总值(GDP)与城市化率关系论述的辨析出发,在实证统计研究的基础上,得出 城市化发展与经济发展的一般关系模型与发展指标。论文中还探讨了特大城市人口比重对于城市化进程的协同作用,城市化 水平评价中的正常区间问题,时间因素的影响,发展的阶段特征以及大国与小国的城市化进程的不同特征。此外还针对我国 的城市化进程问题提出了若干新的见解。

The paper first reviews the findings of Mr. Hollis Chenery’s study on the correlation between urbanization and economic development. Then, based on statistical study, the general correlation models of urbanization and economic development are formulated and the key indicators are brought forward. The relevant issues, such as the effects of city structure, the normal range of indicators of urbanization test, the time factors, the impact of development stages, and the differential characters of small and large nations. Some judgments on the urbanization process of China are also put forward.