城市规划的不确定性分析与规划效能理论

The Uncertainty Analysis on Urban Planning and the Planning Pormance Theory

城市规划既是科学 ,又是艺术 ,更应当被作为是一个可使用的工具来看待。人们需要规划是因为需要一种工具来协调各种行动。规划解决的是未来的发展 ,而未来是不确定的。因此规划的一个主要任务就是发觉、评估和解决不确定性。规划师不可能完全了解城市发展过程中所有的影响和制约因素 ,个人的能力是有限的。在这种前提下 ,城市规划实施中脱离原规划方案和政策 ,以及目标的情况就成为必然。因此就需要一种新型的评估规划的标准。这就是规划效能理论建立的原因。

The city plan is a kind of science,and an art,more significant,it should be regarded as an instrument for the coordination of the various actions to achieve the social,economic and environmental benefit. It has been generally accepted that the future is uncertain. One crucial task of planning is to discover,assess and address uncertainty. It is unable for planners to fully understand all the impacting elements and the restrains during the urban development in a complicated world;there is also limitation of human being. It is then required to have a new type of criteria to evaluate the city macro plans. This is the base for the establishment of the performance theory.