基于需求量随机分布的存货模型教学研究

Teaching Research of Inventory Model Based on Random Distribution of Demand

存储管理模型中的需求量预测是一个比较重要的影响因素。因为需求量是一个变化的因素,在教学中如何通过概率去讲授计算需求量是一个难点,该文通过四个例子的分析,从分析历史的数据入手,把需求量设定为均匀分布、正态分析或者其他分布等,利用概率论知识计算出确定的定货点,同时可以知道可能剩余的概率和供不应求的概率,最后可以做出最佳的存储决策。

Demand forecasting in storage management model is an important factor.Because demand is a changing factor,how to teach the calculation of demand through probability is a difficult point in teaching.This paper starts with the analysis of historical data,sets the demand as a uniform distribution,normal analysis or other distribution,calculates the determined ordering point by using probability theory knowledge,and knows the probabilities of possible surplus at the same time.The probability of shortage of supply and demand can finally make the best storage decision.