收入差距推动了我国房价上涨吗?

Does Income Gap Drive Housing Price Rising in China

许多人认为收入差距是我国近年房价迅猛上涨的幕后推手之一。本文通过建立一个同质性住房市场模型考察收入差距对房价的影响。收入差距通过"消费效应"和"投机效应"两方面对房价产生影响。前者直接减少了住房需求从而降低房价,是一种"直接效应";后者使得高收入者具有相应的投机能力,增加了住房需求从而抬高房价,是一种"间接效应"。收入差距对房价影响的"总效应"取决于这两种效应大小比较。建立在我国31个省(市、自治区)1999—2011年数据基础上的实证结果表明收入差距并未推动房价上涨,稳健性检验的结果表明本文的实证分析是可靠的。此外,我们还进一步解释了为什么公众会觉得买不起住房,从而产生收入差距扩大推高了房价的幻觉。

Many people think that income gap is one of the most important impetus to housing price rising in recent years.This paper investigates the impact of income gap upon housing price by constructing a homogeneous housing market model,we find that income gap affects housing price by 'consumption effect' and 'speculation effect'.The former decreases the housing demand and depresses housing price directly thus can be called 'direct effect';the latter increases the housing demand and boosts housing price indirectly thus can be called 'indirect effect'.The 'total effect' depends on the two effct fighting each other.The empirical analysis based on 31 provinces in China from 1999 through 2011 confirms that income gap totally depresses the housing price and the robustness tests conform these conclusions.Moreover,we explain why the public have hallucination that income gap increases the housing price.