如何突破京津冀“双重低端锁定”?——基于区域价值链的产业升级和经济增长效应研究

How to break through the“double low-end lock”of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei?Research on industrial upgrading and economic growth effect based on regional value chain

京津冀协同发展战略的提出和实施加强了京津冀之间的联系,以此为基础构建区域价值链能够有效突破京津冀在国家价值链和全球价值链中的'双重低端锁定'。首先,利用区域间投入产出表证实京津冀处于'双重低端锁定'位置;其次,分析京津冀区域一体化构建区域价值链的机理,表明该地具备构建区域价值链的条件;最后,从经济、交通和政治三个方面分析了其区域联系,并以此为基础构建区域价值链,利用京津冀制造业2014年1月至2017年5月共41个月的月度数据建立联立方程模型,检验了京津冀区域价值链的产业升级和经济增长效应。结果表明:京津冀协同发展政策通过后形成的以区域联系为基础的京津冀区域价值链能够促进该地经济发展和产业升级,且人均GDP较低的省市产业升级效应越明显;区域联系对京津冀产业升级和经济发展的影响是通过北京的技术外溢实现的,但技术外溢的正反馈机制仍有待进一步完善。

The formulation and implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation strategy has strengthened the link between them.Based on the strategy,the construction of regional value chain can effectively break through the'double low-end lock'in the national value chain and the global value chain.The paper firstly uses the inter-regional input-output table to confirm that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is in a'double low-end lock'position;secondly,it analyzes the mechanism of constructing regional value chain through Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional integration,indicating that the site has the conditions for constructing the regional value chain;finally,the paper analyzes its regional connections from three aspects of economy,transportation and politics,and builds a regional value chain based on it.A model of simultaneous equations is established by using the monthly data of 41 months from January 2014 to May 2017 of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province,and the industrial upgrading and economic growth effect of the regional value chain of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is tested.The results show that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional value chain based on regional linkages formed after the coordinated development policy can promote economic development and industrial upgrading,and the effect of industrial upgrading in provinces and cities with lower per capita GDP is more obvious;the impact of regional linkages on the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial upgrading is achieved through technology spillovers in Beijing,but the positive feedback mechanism of technology spillovers needs to be further improved.