中国工业物化型技术进步测度及其就业转移效应研究

Research on the measurement of China’s embodied technical progress and its employment transfer effect

前沿研究重点关注物化型技术进步在行业内产生的就业效应,忽视物化型技术进步在行业间的关联影响。利用2003—2017年中国36个工业行业面板数据,测算工业行业物化型技术进步,结合工业生产部门间投入产出数据,考察物化型技术进步在工业技术相似行业、前向关联行业与后向关联行业间的就业转移影响。研究表明:虽然物化型技术进步在工业行业内产生就业替代,还挤出了其上游行业就业,但对其技术相似行业和下游行业就业有创造作用,弥补了工业行业就业不足的同时,为失业人员提供了再就业岗位。物化型技术进步导致生产的资本化是减少工业行业就业需求的主要作用渠道,而物化型技术进步引致关联行业产品的总需求增加是发生就业转移的重要驱动力。物化型技术进步对就业的关联影响具有行业异质性,其中就业转移主要发生于劳动密集型制造业间,资本密集型制造业就业受影响相对较小,且表现为就业创造作用。

Literatures focuses on the employment effect of embodied technical progress in intra-industry,ignoring interrelated effect of inter-industrial embodied technical progress.This paper uses panel data of 36 industrial sectors in China from 2003 to 2017 to calculate embodied technical progress of industrial industries.Combined with input and output data of industrial sectors,this paper investigates the impact of embodied technical progress on employment in technical similar industries,forward related industries and backward related industries.The results show that although embodied technical progress produces employment substitution in intra-industries and squeezes out employment in upstream industries,it plays a creative role in employment in industries with technical similar and downstream industries,making up for the shortage of employment in industrial sectors and providing reemployment for the unemployed.The production capitalization caused by embodied technical progress is the main channel to reduce the employment demand of industrial sectors,and the increase of total demand of related industry products caused by embodied technical progress is an important driving force for employment transfer.The interrelated impact of embodied technical progress on employment has industry heterogeneity.The employment transfer effect mainly happened in labor-intensive manufacturing industries,while the employment of capital-intensive manufacturing industries is relatively less affected and manifests itself as job creation.