二胎政策背景下人口变化对房地产业的影响研究——基于OLG模型的分析

Research on the influence of demographic change on real estate industry under the background of the second child policy:analysis based on OLG model

首先,使用2004—2015年我国房地产业与宏观经济数据进行回归分析,验证了人口是影响我国房地产业的重要因素,并且老年抚养比例上升可以促进房价增长,反映出我国存在较为突出的父母为子女买房的现象,基于此,构建包含'购房代际转移'的OLG模型,对不同人口增长率情况下整体经济与房地产业的运行情况进行模拟。在不考虑技术进步与人力资本积累的情况下,结果显示:(1)由于抚养成本的存在,人口增长率与住房价格、房地产销售呈倒'U'型关系,反映出不能仅依靠人口政策解决房地产下行压力问题;(2)老年人口为儿女买房的动机增强会增加社会整体购房需求,提升房价水平,但是也会让人口增长对房地产业的消极影响提前显现;(3)人口增长率提升可以增强房地产行业对经济的影响力,但同时也会挤占其他行业投资,使社会资源过度集中到房地产行业中,不利于整体经济发展。

The empirical research during the period of 2004—2015 indicates that population is an important factor affecting China’s real estate industry and the proportion of the old-age increase can promote the growth of housing price,which reflects the parents in China have stronger motivation to buy a house for their children.Then we construct OLG mode containing the phenomenon of intergenerational transfer of buying house to perform numerical simulations of housing prices under different population growth rates.Without considering technological advancement and accumulation of human capital,the research results show that:(1)Due to the existence of raising cost,population growth rate,housing prices and real estate sales show a'U'-type relationship,reflecting that we cannot rely solely on population policies to solve the downward pressure on real estate;(2)The increase in the elderly population’s incentive to buy houses for children will increase housing prices,but it will also make the negative impact of population growth on house prices appear ahead of schedule;(3)The increase in population growth rate can enhance the influence of the real estate industry on the economy,but it will crowd out investment in other sectors,which is not conducive to the economy.