“输煤转输电”效应模拟分析与利益补偿机制设计——基于三区域CGE模型的山西—山东案例

Analysis of Effect Simulating and Design of the Mechanism of Interests Compensating in “Coal transportation into Electric Power Transmission”: A Case Study of Shanxi-Shandong Based on the Three Area CGE Model

'输煤转输电'能源输送战略可显著减少京津冀等东部沿海地区煤炭消费,有效治理雾霾、改善环境。本文基于三区域CGE模型,以山西—山东为案例,将山西输往山东的煤炭量变化幅度选定在[-15%,15%]之间,以每一个百分点作为一种调整方案,即煤炭输送量减少1%,同时电力输送量增加1%,定量分析了山西至山东'输煤转输电'的30种调整方案对山西、山东及其他地区的经济、社会和生态效应。研究发现:随着'输煤转输电'力度加大,山西GDP、财政收入、社会就业和居民福利都呈下降趋势,山东和其他地区GDP、财政收入、社会就业和居民福利则都呈增加趋势。与拟通过'输煤转输电'来治理东部地区雾霾等大气生态问题的政策期望目标截然相反,山西、山东和其他地区的二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放量都呈增加趋势。按照'受益者付费,受害者得到补偿'的原则,山东作为受益端应该对山西进行补偿。在'输煤转输电'导致山东对山西进行补贴时,从山东角度的最高补贴额度等于全国总福利最大化角度下的最优补贴额度,但都低于从山西角度的最低补贴额度。此时,山西GDP、社会就业、财政收入仍然受到一定幅度的损失,因此,除了山东外,其他地区或中央也应该对山西进行一定补偿。

"Coal transportation into electric power transmission" energy transmission strategy can significantly reduce the Beijing,Tianjin and other eastern coastal coal consumption,effective governance haze,improve the environment. This paper based on the three area CGE model,taking Shanxi Province-Shandong Province as a case study of,Shanxi coal exports to the variations of Shandong selected in [-15%,15% ],to every one percentage point as an adjustment scheme,namely coal transport volume decreased 1%,while electricity increased by 1%,the quantitative analysis of the Shanxi-Shandong "coal transportation into electric power transmission"30 adjustment schemes of Shanxi,Shandong and other areas of economic,social and ecological effects. The study found that: with the "coal transportation into electric power transmission" intensified,Shanxi GDP,fiscal revenue,employment and social welfare of the residents showed a trend of decline,Shandong and other areas of GDP,fiscal revenue,employment and social welfare of residents is increasing. And intends to policy target to govern the eastern region of the haze and other air ecological problems in the opposite,Shanxi,Shandong and other areas of sulfur dioxide,carbon dioxide emissions increased. In accordance with the principle of"paying the beneficiary and the victim compensated",Shandong should compensate Shanxi as a beneficiary. In the "coal transportation into electric power transmission" in Shandong subsidies for Shanxi, the view from Shandong the highest amount of subsidies is equal to the optimal amount of subsidies of the total welfare maximization angle,but lower than the minimum amount of subsidies from the perspective of Shanxi. At this point,Shanxi,GDP,employment,financial income is still a certain range of losses,therefore,in addition to Shandong,other regions or the central authorities should also make certain compensation for Shanxi.