互联网技术驱动下的中国制造业结构优化升级研究

Research on Optimization and Upgrading of Chinese Manufacturing Structure Driven by Internet Technology

本文通过梳理技术进步理论,探索出驱动制造业结构优化升级的互联网技术进步路径,剖析了不同路径对结构合理化和高度化的影响机理。在此基础上,使用'文本挖掘法'建立有关'互联网制造'指数的定量测度方法,利用2003～2015年中国制造业30个行业的大中型工业企业数据,使用岭回归实证考察了互联网技术通过不同路径对中国制造业结构调整的影响。研究发现,自我积累基础上的自主创新路径只能促进制造业结构趋于合理化;互联网技术扩散路径能在一定程度上推动制造业结构趋于合理,并实现结构高度化;互联网技术引进基础上的自主创新路径能驱动制造业结构同时实现合理化和高度化,且影响作用也最大,因而是驱动制造业结构优化升级的最优路径。然而,这一进程可能伴随着制造业中高端技术行业低附加值的趋势,并且互联网技术进步对制造业结构调整的影响具有时滞效应。

Based on theory of technological progress,this paper explores the paths of internet technology progress which drive optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure,and analyzes the effect mechanism of different paths on rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing structure. On this basis,this paper provides the quantitative measurement of "Internet Manufacturing"index by data envelopment analysis,and does empirical research on the effect of internet technology on manufacturing structural adjustment through different paths in use of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises data of 30 industries of China’s manufacturing in 2003-2015 years by ridge regression. The results show that independent innovation based on self-accumulation can only promote rationalization of manufacturing structure. Internet technology diffusion can promote rationalization of manufacturing structure to a certain extent,and realize structural upgrading. Independent innovation on the basis of introduction of internet technology can not only drive rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing structure, but also make the biggest impact,therefore it’s the optimal path to drive optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure.However,this process may be accompanied by a low value-added trend in the high technology industry,and internet technology also has a time lag effect on manufacturing structural adjustment.