中国制造业产业关联、比较优势与出口技术结构分析——基于增加值贸易的视角

The analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Relationship,Comparative Advantage and Export Technological Structure——Based on the Perspective of Added Value Trade

全球生产分工深刻地改变了全球的贸易利益格局,国家间产业的垂直分工与国家内部产业间的水平关联共同塑造了一国的出口比较优势和贸易结构。本文使用WIOD数据库计算了全球40个国家(地区)1995—2011年14种制造业产业的出口增加值,利用测算的增加值贸易数据结合出口复杂度方法将制造业产品划分为高技术和低技术两类,进一步使用增加值数据分别计算了各类出口产品的显示比较优势指数、结构变动指数和结构优化指数,并选取影响力系数和感应度系数对我国和美国的制造业产业关联程度进行了比较分析。结果显示:(1)我国同发达国家相比出口结构不合理,低技术产品出口比重过高而高技术产品出口比重偏低;(2)我国制造业出口结构整体呈现优化趋势;(3)1995—2011年,我国产品出口比较优势日渐成熟,但具有比较优势的产品仍以低技术含量产品为主;(4)我国传统产业纺织及服装制造业与其他行业的前后向联系非常紧密,毛皮制品及鞋类、机械制品和交通运输设备成为具有潜在比较优势的行业,但石油加工制品与其他行业的需求联动不显著。与美国相比,我国传统优势产业的影响力系数和感应度系数均过大。为实现出口转型升级,政府应更加重视市场竞争环境的培育,公平竞争可以提高生产率,起到更好地发挥国内产业间的关联和潜在比较优势产品竞争力的作用。

Global production division of labor has profoundly changed the pattern of Global trade interests,the vertical division of the national industry and the connection of industry within countries have jointly created a country’s export comparative advantage and trade structure. This paper uses WIOD database to calculate added value of export of 14 kinds of manufacturing industries of 40 countries (regions) around the world between 1995-2011. we uses the added value of the trade data,combining with the export complexity method,the manufacturing products are divided into two categories,which are high technology and low technology,to display respectively export comparative advantage index,Structural change index and structural optimization index,and the influence coefficient and the induction degree coefficient are selected to analyze the manufacturing industry associations in China and the United States. Research shows:( 1) Compared with developed countries,China’s export structure is irrational,the proportion of exports of low-tech products is too high and the proportion of exports of high-tech products is low.( 2) China’s manufacturing industry product export structure overall showed the trend of optimization.( 3) In 1995-2011 years,the structure of exports of manufactured goods movers gentle,the product export comparative advantage is gradually mature,but the low tech products products with comparative advantage are still in the main.( 4) Textile and garment manufacturing is China’s traditional industries,the two industries and other sectors of the front and rear are very closely linked,Fur products and footwear,mechanical products and transportation equipment has become a potential comparative advantage of the industry,But oil processing products with the needs of other sectors of the linkage is not significant. Compared to the United States,the influence coefficient and reaction coefficient of traditional industries are too large. in order to achieve the transformation and upgrading of exports,government should pay more attention to the cultivation of the market competition environment,Fair competition can improve productivity,play a better role in the domestic industry associations and the potential comparative advantage of products.