基于增长型周期波动理论的多环节蔬菜价格波动研究

Study of Vegetable Price Fluctuation at Different Channel Level——Based on Growing Cyclical Fluctuation Theory

近年来,我国蔬菜价格波动加剧,对市民的民生和农民的增收都产生了明显的冲击,引发了全社会的高度关注。本文利用增长型周期波动理论和方法,同时分析流通渠道中的生产价格、批发价格和零售价格的增长型周期波动特征,并在以往进行季节调整的基础上,进一步剔除长期趋势,从供给、需求和宏观经济三个方面系统分析了蔬菜价格周期性波动的影响因素。研究发现,蔬菜生产价格、批发价格和零售价格都呈现出显著的长期上涨趋势、周期性波动、与季节波动相互叠加特征,且在波动频率与波动幅度上都有显著差异。不同变量对蔬菜价格的波动影响程度存在差异,且同一个变量在生产价格、批发价格和零售价格上的影响也不相同。本文根据蔬菜价格波动的影响因素,提出了稳定蔬菜价格、平抑过度波动的对策建议。

In recent year,vegetable price fluctuation is becoming more violent in China,and having significant impact on citizens’ living and farmers’ incoming,which has already attached public attention. Based on growing cyclical fluctuation theory and methods,this study analyses the growing cyclical fluctuation characteristics of producer price, wholesale price and retail price in Vegetable circulation channel,and then the influence factors of vegetable price cyclical fluctuation from aspects of supply,demand and macroeconomic after seasonal adjustment and long-term tendency removal. This study finds: 1) Vegetable producer price,wholesale price and retail price all have clear features of long-term arising tendency,cyclical fluctuation and seasonal fluctuation overlapped,and clear difference in fluctuation frequency and fluctuation margin;2) The different variables bring diverse impacts to vegetable price,and a same variable also takes different impact to producer price,wholesale price and retail price. In the end,some policy suggestions are offered to restrain excessive fluctuation according to this study.