金融稳定性与房地产价格的耦合效应检验

Testing the Coupling Effect between Financial Stability and Real Estate Prices

基于2004年1月至2017年12月的月度数据,运用主成分分析方法构建金融稳定性综合指标,再通过构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)来检验金融稳定性与房地产价格之间的耦合效应。结果表明,房地产价格波动与金融稳定性呈负相关关系,金融稳定性减弱加剧了房地产价格的波动。因此,政府应加强对房地产价格波动的监测,通过制定各种配套的金融法律法规,来维持金融稳定性。

Based on the monthly data from January 2004 to December 2017,the comprehensive index of financial stability is constructed by principal component analysis(PCA),and the structure vector autoregressive model(SVAR)is used to test the coupling effect between financial stability and real estate prices.The result shows that the fluctuation of real estate price is negatively related to financial stability,and the weakening of financial stability exacerbates the fluctuation of real estate prices.Therefore,the government should strengthen the monitoring of the fluctuation of real estate prices,and formulate various financial laws and regulations to maintain the level of financial stability.