地方政府债务风险的空间溢出及其解释——基于关系数据的研究

Explanation on the Spatial Spillover of Local Government Debt Risk——Research Based on Relational Data

本文从"关系"视角出发,首次将关系数据分析范式应用于地方政府债务风险问题研究中。基于2017年中国省际数据,以城投债作为地方政府债务风险的测度指标,深入分析地方政府债务风险形成的体制原因,从关系视角重新审视地方政府债务风险空间溢出特征及其来源。研究发现:我国地方政府债务风险存在明显的空间溢出效应并且呈现出复杂的多线程空间溢出特征;政绩激励、权责分离、财政分权对地方政府在空间溢出网络中的中心性地位具有显著的正向促进作用,但政府干预的检验统计上不显著;财政分权、政绩激励以及政府干预会显著促进地方政府债务风险的空间溢出效应,权责分离统计上不显著。基于上述研究本文提出了地方政府债务风险的跨区域协同治理思路。

From the perspective of relationship,this paper applies the paradigm of relational data analysis to the study of local government debt risk for the first time.Based on the 2017 inter-provincial data of China,we use city investment bonds to measure local government debt risk and analyze the institutional reasons for the formation of local government debt risk in depth,and re-examine the spatial spillover characteristics and sources of local government debt risk from the perspective of relationship.The study finds that there is a significant spatial spillover effect of local government debt risk and the complexity of multi-thread space spillover characteristics due to the impact of geographical distance;the degree of political incentives,separation of powers and responsibilities,and fiscal decentralization,has a significant positive effect on the central position of local governments in space spillover networks,but the degree of government intervention is not statistically significant;the degree of fiscal decentralization,political incentives,and government intervention will significantly promote the spatial spillover effect of local government debt risk,but the degree of separation of powers and responsibilities is not statistically significant.So this paper proposes a cross-regional collaborative governance approach for local government debt risk.