政府财政透明“稳预期”了吗？

Does Government Fiscal Transparency Stabilize Expectation?

财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱,财政政策是影响企业预期的关键因素。本文通过2013-2016年上市公司数据和《中国市级政府财政透明度研究报告》相关数据,利用工具变量法系统考察了财政透明度提升和企业杠杆率调整速度的关系,从而分析财政政策不确定性如何影响企业预期。本文的结论支持财政透明度提高有利于为经济发展注入确定性,从而稳定企业预期的观点。经过一系列稳健性检验之后本文结论依然保持稳健,另外,本文还进行了异质性检验和进一步讨论。本文为财政政策不确定性如何影响预期提供了一个实证证据,并对财政治理如何'稳预期'提出政策参考和建议。

Fiscal governance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance,which also becomes a key factor to reshape the market expectation.With data of listed companies and data from Report of Fiscal Transparency in Chinese City in 2013-2016,this paper systematically discusses whether the fiscal transparency stabilizes Expectation by IV Method.Our conclusion supports that fiscal transparency creates certainty for economic development so that stabilizes the market expectation,which remains robust after a series of robustness check.Besides,we discover the heterogeneity effect and other issues.This paper provides an empirical evidence about how fiscal uncertainty influences the expectation and offers policy advice for how fiscal governance stabilizes expectation.